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Consensus

Sell-side analysts with active coverage of UniCredit at the research firms listed in the first page of the attachment were asked to submit their latest UniCredit estimates for this consensus collection. Research firms that have recently discontinued UniCredit coverage (some of which may have contributed to prior consensus collection) are not shown on this list. Sell-side analysts who maintain a detailed earnings forecast model are asked to participate in the consensus collection.

 

Please note that the table below and the downloadable document are a summary of publicly available opinions, estimates and forecasts made by analysts representing 15 brokers covering UniCredit. The document contains a summary of median and average consensus estimates for UniCredit, collected by UniCredit Investor Relations directly from sell-side analysts covering UniCredit.

The opinions, estimates and forecasts are theirs alone and do not represent the opinions, estimates or forecasts of UniCredit or its management, nor should they be considered as a recommendation to enter into any transaction involving UniCredit securities.

By including this information on its website, UniCredit does not endorse or concur with any of these opinions, estimates or forecasts and disclaims any liability for the completeness, timeliness, accuracy or selection of such information.

 

 

Consensus updated before 1Q25 results.

 

 

Target price, rating, EPS, DPS

Target price & rating

   
Average target price, € 55.41
Contributors with rating, # 13
BUY (Overweight, Outperform, Add, Accumulate) 85%
HOLD (Neutral, Market Perform, Equalweight, In line)  15%
SELL (Reduce, Underperform, Underweight)  0%

Stated EPS (1), €

  2025E 2026E 2027E
Average Stated EPS, € 6.28 6.83 7.53
Growth y/y n.m. +9% +10%
Median Stated EPS, € 6.27 6.87 7.53
Growth y/y n.m. +10% +10%
Max  6.75 7.32 8.25
Min 5.97 6.25 6.84

EPS(2), €

  2025E 2026E 2027E
Average EPS, € 6.20 6.79 7.47
Growth y/y n.m. +10% +10%
Median EPS, € 6.17 6.78 7.49
Growth y/y n.m. +10% +11%
Max  6.50 7.32 8.25
Min 5.97 6.25 6.84

DPS(3), €

  2025E 2026E 2027E
Average DPS, € 3.14 3.48 3.87
Growth n.m. +11% +11%
Median DPS, € 3.14 3.42 3.81
Growth n.m. +9% +11%
Max  3.34 3.77 4.36
Min 2.70 3.21 3.50

(1) Stated EPS is calculated by taking the estimates on Stated Net Profit over average outstanding ordinary shares submitted by the individual analysts that participate to the Consensus compiling process.

(2) EPS is calculated by taking the estimates on Net Profit over average outstanding ordinary shares submitted by the individual analysts that participate to the Consensus compiling process.

(3) DPS is calculated by taking the absolute cash dividends over EoP number of ordinary shares estimates submitted by the individual analysts that participate to the Consensus compiling process.

 

Group

Consensus full table 

 

Consensus(4) 1Q25E   2025E   2026E   2027E  
€m Average Median Average Median Average Median Average Median
Total revenues 6,048 6,057 24,126 24,070 24,496 24,347 25,128 24,840
Net interest 3,488 3,490 13,615 13,573 13,497 13,518 13,737 13,706
Net commissions and insurance result 2,181 2,185 8,542 8,525 8,971 8,953 9,327 9,295
Trading income 265 260 1,396 1,442 1,416 1,472 1,424 1,459
Dividends 111 111 497 478 534 489 564 495
Balance 3 5 76 68 78 68 76 65
Operating costs -2,351 -2,355 -9,571 -9,582 -9,679 -9,661 -9,821 -9,825
Staff expenses -1,453 -1,448 -5,951 -5,942 -6,002 -6,017 -6,074 -6,061
Other administrative expenses -665 -661 -2,675 -2,696 -2,715 -2,714 -2,768 -2,795
Recovery of expenses 37 27 130 116 134 116 135 119
Depreciation and amortisation  -271 -272 -1,066 -1,074 -1,085 -1,085 -1,100 -1,098
Gross operating profit 3,696 3,701 14,555 14,498 14,817 14,707 15,307 15,061
Net write-downs on loans -144 -134 -769 -768 -958 -970 -1,050 -1,064
Net operating profit 3,552 3,530 13,786 13,821 13,859 13,783 14,257 14,146
Other charges & provisions -193 -188 -602 -583 -499 -497 -494 -479
 o/w Systemic Charges -150 -147 -308 -319 -273 -277 -296 -277
  o/w DGS -52 -48 -88 -93 -81 -85 -82 -85
  o/w Bank levies -97 -100 -211 -230 -182 -233 -176 -224
  o/w SRF -10 -9 -18 -20 -22 -20 -22 -20
Integration costs -19 -13 -192 -189 -90 -80 -71 -50
Net profit (loss) from investments -10 -9 -52 -32 -50 -32 -45 -29
Profit (loss) before tax 3,331 3,286 12,945 12,880 13,232 13,272 13,659 13,629
Income taxes -963 -969 -3,512 -3,597 -3,650 -3,740 -3,780 -3,816
Net profit (loss) of discontinued operations 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Minorities -10 -10 -42 -45 -43 -48 -46 -48
PPA 0 0 -1 0 -1 0 -1 0
Goodwill impairment 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Other 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Stated Net profit 2,358 2,331 9,390 9,368 9,538 9,525 9,833 9,810
Net Profit 2,341 2,331 9,270 9,199 9,488 9,516 9,792 9,805
AT1 Coupon (post tax basis) -31 0 -248 -228 -247 -236 -253 -245
Cashes Coupon (post tax basis) -40 -54 -197 -199 -191 -193 -186 -192
Net Profit after AT1 and Cashes 2,288 2,287 8,828 8,858 9,028 9,119 9,334 9,407
                 
RWA, EoP 293,371 291,815 295,824 296,833 303,024 302,270 311,259 309,133
CET1% 15.28% 15.29% 15.01% 14.86% 14.79% 14.64% 14.44% 14.27%

(4) Please note that the number of contributors may vary line by line and by reference period. Hence some quarter-end figures may not match the year-end ones. NB: The consensus figures represent the line-by-line median of the estimates provided by the analysts, therefore are not additive.

 

"Stated net profit" means accounting net profit.
"Net profit" means Stated net profit adjusted for impacts from DTAs tax loss carry forward resulting from sustainability test. The result is used for cash dividend accrual / total distribution.
"Net profit after AT1 and Cashes" means Net profit as defined above adjusted for impacts from AT1 and Cashes coupons. The result is used for RoTE and RoAC calculation.

 

Updated on 14 April 2025.